Belief Global Conflict Risk 2026 Index
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This index measures market-implied expectations of military escalation across major geopolitical hotspots through the end of 2026. The index aggregates prices from a diversified set of global conflict-related outcome markets, including risks tied to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, and the Americas. By combining multiple regions and conflict scenarios into a single index, it reflects the overall level of perceived geopolitical instability rather than the risk of any single event. Changes in the index capture shifts in global conflict expectations as diplomatic developments, military actions, and geopolitical tensions evolve, offering a systematic reference for geopolitical risk exposure.
Performance data as of Mar 10, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals Raw NAV.
Important Information
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.