Quantifying
Conviction.
Bespoke indices derived from market-implied probabilities around real-world events.
Built for research teams that demand auditability, provenance, and institutional-grade methodology.
What is a Belief Index?
Prediction Market Prices
Prediction markets trade contracts on real-world outcomes. Prices reflect the market's implied probability of an event occurring.
Rules-Based Index Methodology
We curate and weight related outcome markets under a documented methodology to represent a specific class of risk.
A Transparent Time Series
The result is a continuously updated index that can be charted, decomposed, and used in analysis.
The Hedging Gap in Modern Portfolios
Institutional portfolios face growing exposure to risks that are difficult to hedge directly:
- Discontinuous outcomes: wars, elections, disasters, policy shifts
- Proxy dependence: oil, equities, FX, and volatility react after events occur
- Correlation spikes: regime changes impact multiple assets at once
Traditional hedges capture second-order price effects.
Belief Systems indices measure first-order outcome risk.
How Institutions Use Belief Indices
Hedging Overlays
- Insurance & reinsuranceHedge catastrophe season exposure using disaster-risk indices as dynamic overlays
- Macro fundsHedge geopolitical tail risk without relying on commodity or defense-equity proxies
- Asset owners & corporatesHedge election-driven policy risk alongside core portfolios
Risk Management
- Stress testingInputs into stress testing, scenario analysis, and risk dashboards
- Early-warning indicatorsSignals for regime change and tail-risk monitoring
Portfolio Construction
- Pair tradesRisk-on assets plus uncertainty hedges
- Factor exposureExpress stability versus disruption as a distinct risk factor
Why Market-Implied Probabilities Matter
Direct
Tracks the event itself, not a proxy
Adaptive
Updates continuously as information changes
Transparent
Components and weights are observable and auditable
Orthogonal
Captures risks poorly explained by traditional asset classes
Belief Indices
View all indices →Belief Global Peace 2026 Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of reduced military escalation across major geopolitical hotspots through the end of 2026. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of global conflict-related outcome markets that resolve favorably toward non-escalation, ceasefire, or stabilization scenarios spanning Eastern Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, and the Americas. By synthesizing outcomes across regions, the index represents the market’s aggregate assessment of geopolitical stabilization rather than the likelihood of any individual peace event. Movements in the index reflect changes in perceived global stability as diplomatic initiatives, conflict containment, and geopolitical developments unfold.
Belief Global Conflict Risk 2026 Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of military escalation across major geopolitical hotspots through the end of 2026. The index aggregates prices from a diversified set of global conflict-related outcome markets, including risks tied to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, and the Americas. By combining multiple regions and conflict scenarios into a single index, it reflects the overall level of perceived geopolitical instability rather than the risk of any single event. Changes in the index capture shifts in global conflict expectations as diplomatic developments, military actions, and geopolitical tensions evolve, offering a systematic reference for geopolitical risk exposure.
An Index and Data Provider
Belief Systems is not an exchange and does not facilitate wagering. We publish indices and related research for institutional evaluation and analysis.
Our indices are:
- Rules-based and documented
- Decomposable into underlying components
- Designed for risk transfer, signaling, and analytics
Make Uncertainty Measurable
As uncertainty becomes a dominant macro variable, institutions need tools that price it explicitly—not indirectly.
Belief Systems enables uncertainty to become measurable, monitorable, and hedgeable.